what is the nature of the problem?

We enjoy a stable climate not because the climate is stagnant, but because there are a variety of different forces that shape the climate existing in a dynamic equilibrium.

Let's consider three kinds of problems (systems): Simple; Complicated and Complex

Simple 

There are a couple of linear variables; x + y = z; we know x and y and we just need to figure out what z is.

Example of a Simple problem baking a muffin: if we have the same recipe we can bake the muffin basically every time. There are a couple of linear variable relationships involved. It's simple.

Complicated

A bunch of simple problems put together; the nature of the problem doesn’t change, it just gets bigger.

Example of a Complicated problem building a rocket ship It is basically a whole bunch of muffin recipes put together. If we figure out the inputs and how to put all the elements together we’ll get the same rocket every single time.

Complex 
It's not different from simple or complicated problems due to scale; it’s not EVEN BIGGER than building a rocket ship (it can be small problem or issue).  Complex problems are ones in which variables have multiple/different kinds of relationships with one another. And changing one variable changes other variables, which changes other variables. So you get what are called feedback loops between the different variables.

Something happens to x which influences y which influences z which influences y again which influences x again. All these things are going on and it becomes harder to predict what is going to happen.

Examples of a Complex problem the human body or raising a child there are a vast number of variables that influence one another in all sorts of different ways. There is no recipe for raising a kid, because he/she will always going to turn out differently and you can’t predict what is going to happen.

our climate: Our climate is neither simple nor complicated; it is deeply complex because there are all sorts of different forces that shape each

other and co-evolve together that maintain a dynamic equilibrium. Why is it important to recognize that the climate complex system? Because of tipping points.

Over time, a complex system like the climate will tend to develop into a stable state where the different forces are balancing each other. In that context the particular balanced forces are able to maintain the stability of the system so that if one variable starts changing, it will cause feedback loops that actually reduce the impact of that change on the rest of the system.

For Instance If

On a planet wide scale we get more & more animals exhaling carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. That CO2 is food for plants so you would get more and more plant growth to absorb the C02. One variable changes – the amount of C02 released by animals - and another variable - the amount of plant life that is reabsorbing that CO2 - would change to balance out the overall change to the system. Long term, stable systems are filled with those kinds of self maintaining feedback loops.

What happens in a complex system when one variable changes so much or so rapidly that the existing self-maintaining feedback loops aren’t able to balance it out anymore?

Eventually they reach a tipping point. Past that tipping point that neat balancing of forces no longer functions and the whole system changes in ways that are very difficult to predict while the system tries to reorganize itself to find a new balance.  

(BIG shout out to Jamie Biggar for delineating & defining the types of problems & for explaining why climate is complex. He was one of the Canadian Youth Delegates to the Copenhagen Climate Summit. He focused on domestic citizen engagement & new media.